Supporting sustainable long-term residential care in Ireland: a study protocol for the Sustainable Residential Care (SRC) project.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic brought to the fore deficiencies in the long-term residential care (LTRC) sector, including issues of governance, funding and staffing. Many of these issues pre-dated the pandemic and have contributed to concerns around the sustainability of the current model of LTRC in Ireland. The aim of the project detailed in this protocol is to provide an evidence base to help ensure the sustainability of the LTRC sector in Ireland within a new wider model of care for older people. The project includes three key objectives: (i) to describe and analyse the characteristics of LTRC homes across Ireland; (ii) to examine the association between LTRC home characteristics and COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths and (iii) to identify challenges to the sustainability of the LTRC sector within a COVID-19 environment and beyond. Bringing together the findings from these three objectives, the project will identify approaches and strategies which will help ensure the sustainability of LTRC that meets the needs of residents. The proposed research incorporates quantitative analyses and a review. Combining data from a variety of administration sources and using a variety of statistical techniques, the project will include a retrospective observational analysis of COVID-19 in LTRC homes in Ireland. Subsequently, a review will examine the current funding model of LTRC in Ireland, as well as the regulations and governance structure that underlie the system. The review will also examine international practices in these areas. Bringing together the findings from the quantitative analysis and the review and working with the knowledge users on the project, the project will build upon recent work in the area to identify the current challenges to the system of LTRC and possible solutions.

The impact of inpatient bed capacity on length of stay.

OBJECTIVE: Large reductions in inpatient length of stay and inpatient bed supply have occurred across health systems in recent years. However, the direction of causation between length of stay and bed supply is often overlooked. This study examines the impact of changes to inpatient bed supply, as a result of recession-induced healthcare expenditure changes, on emergency inpatient length of stay in Ireland between 2010 and 2015. STUDY DESIGN: We analyse all public hospital emergency inpatient discharges in Ireland from 2010 to 2015 using the administrative Hospital In-Patient Enquiry dataset. We use changes to inpatient bed supply across hospitals over time to examine the impact of bed supply on length of stay. Linear, negative binomial, and hospital-month-level fixed effects models are estimated. RESULTS: U-shaped trends are observed for both average length of stay and inpatient bed supply between 2010 and 2015. A consistently large positive relationship is found between bed supply and length of stay across all regression analyses. Between 2010 and 2012 while length of stay fell by 6.4%, our analyses estimate that approximately 42% (2.7% points) of this reduction was associated with declines in bed supply. CONCLUSION: Changes in emergency inpatient length of stay in Ireland between 2010 and 2015 were closely related to changes in bed supply during those years. The use of length of stay as an efficiency measure should be understood in the contextual basis of other health system changes. Lower length of stay may be indicative of the lack of resources or available bed supply as opposed to reduced demand for care or the shifting of care to other settings.

StrokeCog Markov Model: Projected Prevalent and Incident Cases of Stroke and Poststroke Cognitive Impairment to 2035 in Ireland.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) and dementia are common stroke outcomes, with significant health and societal implications for aging populations. These outcomes are not included in current epidemiological models. We aimed to develop an epidemiological model to project incidence and prevalence of stroke, poststroke CIND and dementia, and life expectancy, in Ireland to 2035, informing policy and service planning. METHODS: We developed a probabilistic Markov model (the StrokeCog model) applied to the Irish population aged 40 to 89 years to 2035. Data sources included official population and hospital-episode statistics, longitudinal cohort studies, and published estimates. Key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Results were externally validated against independent sources. The model tracks poststroke progression into health states characterized by no cognitive impairment, CIND, dementia, disability, stroke recurrence, and death. RESULTS: We projected 69 051 people with prevalent stroke in Ireland in 2035 (22.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 20.8-23.1]), with 25 274 (8.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 7.1-9.0]) of those projected to have poststroke CIND, and 12 442 having poststroke dementia (4.0 per 1000 population [95% CI, 3.2-4.8]). We projected 8725 annual incident strokes in 2035 (2.8 per 1000 population [95% CI, 2.7-2.9]), with 3832 of these having CIND (1.2 per 1000 population [95% CI, 1.1-1.3]), and 1715 with dementia (0.5 per 1000 population [95% CI, 0.5-0.6]). Life expectancy for stroke survivors at age 50 was 23.4 years (95% CI, 22.3-24.5) for women and 20.7 (95% CI, 19.5-21.9) for men. CONCLUSIONS: This novel epidemiological model of stroke, poststroke CIND, and dementia draws on the best available evidence. Sensitivity analysis indicated that findings were robust to assumptions, and where there was uncertainty a conservative approach was taken. The StrokeCog model is a useful tool for service planning and cost-effectiveness analysis and is available for adaptation to other national contexts.

Geographic inequalities in non-acute healthcare supply: evidence from Ireland.

Background: Recent reforms in Ireland, as outlined in Sláintecare, the report of the cross-party parliamentary committee on health, are focused on shifting from a hospital-centric system to one where non-acute care plays a more central role. However, these reforms were embarked on in the absence of timely and accurate information about the capacity of non-acute care to take on a more central role in the system. To help address this gap, this paper outlines the most comprehensive analysis to date of geographic inequalities in non-acute care supply in Ireland. Methods: Data on the supply of 10 non-acute services including primary care, allied health, and care for older people, were collated. Per capita supply for each service is described for 28 counties in Ireland (Tipperary and Dublin divided into North and South), using 2014 supply and population data. To examine inequity in the geographic distribution of services, raw population in each county was adjusted for a range of needs indicators. Results: The findings show considerable geographic inequalities across counties in the supply of non-acute care. Some counties had low levels of supply of several types of non-acute care. The findings remain largely unchanged after adjusting for need, suggesting that the unequal patterns of supply are also inequitable. Conclusions: In the context of population changes and the influence of non-need factors, the persistence of historical budgeting in Ireland has led to considerable geographic inequities in non-acute supply, with important lessons for Ireland and for other countries. Such inequities come into sharp relief in the context of COVID-19, where non-acute supply plays a crucial role in ensuring that acute services are preserved for treating acutely ill patients.

The StrokeCog study: development and description of a cognition-focused psychological intervention to address cognitive impairment following stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the process of developing a cognitive rehabilitation intervention for patients with post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) and to describe the intervention prior to evaluation in a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT). Method: The Medical Research Council framework, 'Developing and evaluating complex interventions', was used to develop the cognitive rehabilitation intervention. We conducted a combined analysis of the existing evidence base for PSCI rehabilitation alongside qualitative exploration of the perspectives of stroke survivors, their families, and healthcare professionals providing stroke care, on the necessary components for a cognitive rehabilitation intervention for PSCI. The Template for Intervention Description and Replication checklist was used as a structural framework for the description of the intervention. Results: The intervention comprises a five-week intervention integrating group-based activities, supported by a clinical neuropsychologist, with home-based activities to encourage self-efficacy through the practice of adjustment and compensatory strategies learned in the group format to achieve the patients' identified goals in managing their PSCI. Conclusion: A cognitive rehabilitation intervention for patients with PSCI has been developed and described. We are in the process of developing a structured intervention manual to standardise the content and delivery of the intervention for further testing in a pilot RCT.

The Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment on Admission to Nursing Home among Residents with and without Stroke: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Nursing Homes in Ireland.

Post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) is a common consequence of stroke. Epidemiological evidence indicates that, with an ageing population, stroke and PSCI are likely to increase in the coming decades. This may have considerable implications for the demand for nursing home placement. As prevalence estimates of both cognitive impairment and dementia on admission to nursing home among residents with and without stroke have not yet been compared, they were estimated and compared in this study. We performed a cross-sectional survey to establish the admission characteristics of 643 residents in 13 randomly selected nursing homes in Ireland. The survey collected data on resident's stroke and cognitive status at the time of nursing home admission. The survey found, among nursing home residents that experienced stroke prior to admission, prevalence estimates for cognitive impairment (83.8%; 95% CI = 76.9-90.6%) and dementia (66.7%; 95% CI = 57.9-75.4%) were significantly higher compared to residents that had not experienced stroke prior to admission (cognitive impairment: 56.6%; 95% CI = 52.4-60.8%; X2 (1) = 28.64; p < 0.001; dementia: 49.8%; 95% CI = 45.6-54.1%; X2 (1) = 10.47; p < 0.01). Since the prevalence of PSCI is likely to increase in the coming decades, the findings highlight an urgent need for health service planning for this increased demand for nursing home care to meet the care needs of these stroke survivors.

Does formal home care reduce inpatient length of stay?

Formal home care is an appropriate substitute for acute hospital care for many older people. However, limited empirical evidence exists on the extent of substitution between the supply of home care and hospital use. This study examines whether patients from areas with a better supply of home care have lower inpatient length of stay (LOS). We link administrative data on over 300,000 public hospital inpatient admissions in Ireland between 2012 and 2015 to region-year panel data on public home care supply. In addition to modeling average LOS, we estimate unconditional quantile regressions to examine whether home care supply has a disproportionately strong impact on long LOS. We find that inpatients from areas with higher per capita home care supply have lower average LOS; a 10% increase in home care is associated with a 1.2%-2.1% reduction in LOS. This result is driven by the subset of patients with the longest LOS, likely delayed discharges. Stronger results were found for stroke and hip fracture patients, who might be expected to have higher than average propensity to use home care services, and for patients from a region that experienced an unusually large increase in home care supply.

Insurance status and waiting times for hospital-based services in Ireland.

In Ireland long waits for public hospital services are a feature of the healthcare system, with limited evidence that waits for private hospital services (delivered in both public and private hospitals) are shorter. In 2008, in an attempt to ensure more equitable access to hospital-based services, a 'common waiting list' for all patients within public hospitals was proposed. The aim of this paper is to analyse waiting times in Ireland for hospital services for patients with and without private health insurance (PHI) and to examine whether the 2008 reform reduced the differential in waiting. The analysis used data from the 2007 and 2010 health module of the Quarterly National Household survey (QNHS). The impact of insurance status on waiting times was analysed for the period before and after the reforms. A higher proportion of those without PHI were waiting more than three months for hospital services relative to those with PHI. There was no evidence that the 2008 reforms reduced the differential. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the proposals were not fully implemented, although expansion of capacity for private patients' treatment in private hospitals is a possible confounding factor.

The great convergence? Mortality in Ireland and Europe, 1956-2014.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, Irish age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were amongst the highest in the EU-15. This study examines changes in ASMRs in Ireland from 1956 to 2014. METHODS: Using data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, we compare ASMRs in Ireland to other EU-15 countries from 1956 to 2014. ASMRS are used to plot the relative ranking of Ireland within the EU-15, and illustrate trends in which Ireland diverged with, and converged to, the EU-15 average. ASMRS are estimated across sex, age groups (15-64 and 65+ years) and cause of death. RESULTS: Between 1956 and 1999, ASMRs in Ireland were amongst the highest in the EU-15. ASMRs in Ireland saw slower improvements during this period as compared to other EU-15 countries. However, post-2000, a sharp reduction in Irish ASMRs resulted in an accelerated convergence to the EU-15 average. As a consequence of improvements in ASMRs between 2000 and 2014, there were an estimated 15 300 fewer deaths in 2014. The majority of these averted deaths were due to lower mortality rates for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system. CONCLUSIONS: Rather than converging to the EU-15 average during the latter half of the 20th century, there was a divergence in ASMRs between Ireland and the EU-15. However, in recent years, Ireland experienced accelerated improvements in mortality rates with large reductions in mortality observed for diseases of the circulatory system and respiratory system, especially amongst older people.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of cognitive impairment no dementia in the first year post-stroke.

INTRODUCTION: Increasing attention is being paid to interventions for cognitive impairment (CI) post-stroke, including for CI that does not meet dementia criteria. The aim of this paper was to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of cognitive impairment no dementia (CIND) within one year post-stroke. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Pubmed, EMBASE and PsychInfo were searched for papers published in English in 1995-2017. Included studies were population or hospital-based cohort studies for first-ever/recurrent stroke, assessing CIND using standardised criteria at 1-12 months post-stroke. Abstracts were screened, followed by full text review of potentially relevant articles. Data were extracted using a standard form, and study quality was appraised using the Crowe Critical Appraisal Tool. A pooled prevalence of CIND with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was measured using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: A total of 7000 abstracts were screened, followed by 1028 full text articles. Twenty-three articles were included in the systematic review, and 21 in the meta-analysis. The pooled CIND prevalence was 38% [95% CI = 32-43%] (I2=92.5%, p < 0.01). Study quality emerged as one source of heterogeneity. The five studies with the highest quality scores had no heterogeneity (I2=0%, p = 0.99), with a similar pooled prevalence (39%, 95%CI = 35-42%). Other sources of heterogeneity were stroke type, inclusion of pre-stroke CI, and age at assessment time.Discussion and conclusion: Meta-analysis of available studies indicates that in the first year post-stroke, 4 in 10 patients display a level of cognitive impairment that does not meet the criteria for dementia.

Addressing cognitive impairment following stroke: systematic review and meta-analysis of non-randomised controlled studies of psychological interventions.

OBJECTIVE: Cognitive impairment is a pervasive outcome of stroke, reported in over half of patients 6 months post-stroke and is associated with increased disability and a poorer quality of life. Despite the prevalence of post-stroke cognitive impairment, the efficacy of existing psychological interventions for the rehabilitation of cognitive impairment following stroke has yet to be established. The aim of this study is to identify psychological interventions from non-randomised studies that intended to improve post-stroke cognitive function and establish their efficacy. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis of non-randomised studies of psychological interventions addressing post-stroke cognitive impairment. DATA SOURCES: Electronic searches were performed in the Pubmed, EMBASE and PsycINFO databases, the search dating from inception to February 2017. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: All non-randomised controlled studies and quasi-randomised controlled trials examining psychological interventions to improve cognitive function following stroke were included, such as feasibility studies, pilot studies, experimental studies, and quasi-experimental studies. The primary outcome was cognitive function. The prespecified secondary outcomes were functional abilities in daily life and quality of life. METHODS: The current meta-analyses combined the findings of seven controlled studies, examining the efficacy of psychological interventions compared with treatment-as-usual controls or active controls, and 13 one-group pre-post studies. RESULTS: Results indicated an overall small effect on cognition across the controlled studies (Hedges' g=0.38, 95% CI=0.06 to 0.7) and a moderate effect on cognition across the one-group pre-post studies (Hedges' g=0.51, 95% CI=0.3 to 0.73). Specific cognitive domains, such as memory and attention also demonstrated a benefit of psychological interventions. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides support for the potential of psychological interventions to improve overall cognitive function post-stroke. Limitations of the study, in terms of risk of bias and quality of included studies, and future research directions are explored. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017069714.

A European late starter: lessons from the history of reform in Irish health care.

The Irish health care system is unusual within Europe in not providing universal, equitable access to either primary or acute hospital care. The majority of the population pays out-of-pocket fees to access primary health care. Due to long waits for public hospital care, many purchase private health insurance, which facilitates faster access to public and private hospital services. The system has been the subject of much criticism and repeated reform attempts. Proposals in 2011 to develop a universal health care system, funded by Universal Health Insurance, were abandoned in 2015 largely due to cost concerns. Despite this experience, there remains strong political support for developing a universal health care system. By applying an historical institutionalist approach, the paper develops an understanding of why Ireland has been a European outlier. The aim of the paper is to identify and discuss issues that may arise in introducing a universal healthcare system to Ireland informed by an understanding of previous unsuccessful reform proposals. Challenges in system design faced by a late-starter country like Ireland, including overcoming stakeholder resistance, achieving clarity in the definition of universality and avoiding barriers to access, may be shared by countries whose universal systems have been compromised in the period of austerity.

A profile of physiotherapy supply in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: The lack of information on public and private physiotherapy supply in Ireland makes current and future resource allocation decisions difficult. AIM: This paper estimates the supply of physiotherapists in Ireland and profiles physiotherapists across acute and non-acute sectors, and across public and private practice. It examines geographic variation in physiotherapist supply, examining the implications of controlling for healthcare need. METHODS: Physiotherapist headcounts are estimated using Health Service Personnel Census (HSPC) and Irish Society of Chartered Physiotherapists (ISCP) Register data. Headcounts are converted to whole-time equivalents (WTEs) using the HSPC and a survey of ISCP members to account for full- and part-time working practices. Non-acute supply per 10,000 population in each county is estimated to examine geographic inequalities and the raw population is adjusted in turn for a range of need indicators. RESULTS: An estimated 3172 physiotherapists were practising in Ireland in 2015; 6.8 physiotherapists per 10,000, providing an estimated 2620 WTEs. Females accounted for 74% of supply. Supply was greater in the non-acute sector; 1774 WTEs versus 846 WTEs in the acute sector. Physiotherapists in the acute sector were located mainly in publicly financed institutions (89%) with an even public/private split observed in the non-acute sector. Non-acute physiotherapist supply is unequally distributed across Ireland (Gini coefficient = 0.12; 95% CI 0.08-0.15), and inequalities remain after controlling for variations in healthcare needs across counties. CONCLUSION: The supply of physiotherapists in Ireland is 30% lower than the EU-28 average. Substantial inequality in the distribution of physiotherapists across counties is observed.

How many beds? Capacity implications of hospital care demand projections in the Irish hospital system, 2015-2030.

Existing Irish hospital bed capacity is low by international standards while Ireland also reports the highest inpatient bed occupancy rate across OECD countries. Moreover, strong projected population growth and ageing is expected to increase demand for hospital care substantially by 2030. Reform proposals have suggested that increased investment and access to nonacute care may mitigate some increased demand for hospital care over the next number of years, and it is in this context that the Irish government has committed to increase the supply of public hospital beds by 2600 by 2027. Incorporating assumptions on the rebalancing of care to nonhospital settings, this paper analyses the capacity implications of projected demand for hospital care in Ireland to 2030. This analysis employs the HIPPOCRATES macrosimulation projection model of health care demand and expenditure developed in the ESRI to project public and private hospital bed capacity requirements in Ireland to 2030. We examine 6 alternative projection scenarios that vary assumptions related to population growth and ageing, healthy ageing, unmet demand, hospital occupancy, hospital length of stay, and avoidable hospitalisations. We project an increased need for between 4000 and 6300 beds across public and private hospitals (an increase of between 26.1% and 41.1%), of which 3200 to 5600 will be required in public hospitals. These findings suggest that government plans to increase public hospital capacity over the 10 years to 2027 by 2600 may not be sufficient to meet demand requirements to 2030, even when models of care changes are accounted for.

Poststroke Cognitive Impairment in Model-Based Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Cognitive impairment (CI) is a frequent consequence of stroke and is associated with increased costs and reduced quality of life. However, its inclusion in model-based economic evaluation for stroke is limited. OBJECTIVE: To identify, review, and critically appraise current models of stroke for use in economic evaluation, and to identify applicability to modeling poststroke CI. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and the NHS Economic Evaluations Database (NHS EED) were systematically searched for papers published from January 2008 to August 2018. Studies that described the development or design of a model of stroke progression intended for use in economic evaluation were included. Abstracts were screened, followed by full text review of potentially relevant articles. Models that included CI were retained for data extraction, and among the remainder, models that included both stroke recurrence and disability were also retained. Relevance and potential for adaptation for modeling CI were assessed using a standard questionnaire. RESULTS: Forty modeling studies were identified and categorized into 4 groups: Markov disability/recurrence (k = 29); CI (k = 2); discrete event simulation (k = 4), and other (k = 5). Only 2 modeling studies included CI as an outcome, and both focused on narrow populations at risk of intracranial aneurysm. None of the models allowed for disease progression in the absence of a stroke recurrence. None of the included studies carried out any sensitivity analysis in relation to model design or structure. CONCLUSIONS: Current stroke models used in economic evaluation are not adequate to model poststroke CI or dementia, and will require adaptation to be used for this purpose.

Managing cognitive impairment following stroke: protocol for a systematic review of non-randomised controlled studies of psychological interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is one of the primary causes of death and disability worldwide, leaving a considerable proportion of survivors with persistent cognitive and functional deficits. Despite the prevalence of poststroke cognitive impairment, there is no established treatment aimed at improving cognitive function following a stroke. Therefore, the aims of this systematic review are to identify psychological interventions intended to improve poststroke cognitive function and establish their efficacy. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic review of non-randomised controlled studies that investigated the efficacy of psychological interventions aimed at improving cognitive function in stroke survivors will be conducted. Electronic searches will be performed in the PubMed, Embase and PsycINFO databases, the search dating from the beginning of the index to February 2017. Reference lists of all identified relevant articles will be reviewed to identify additional studies not previously identified by the electronic search. Potential grey literature will be reviewed using Google Scholar. Titles and abstracts will be assessed for eligibility by one reviewer, with a random sample of 50% independently double-screened by second reviewers. Any discrepancies will be resolved through discussion, with referral to a third reviewer where necessary. Risk of bias will be assessed with the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. Meta-analyses will be performed if studies are sufficiently homogeneous. This review will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. The quality of the evidence regarding cognitive function will be assessed according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This systematic review will collect secondary data only and as such ethical approval is not required. Findings will be disseminated through presentations and peer-reviewed publication. This review will provide information on the effectiveness of psychological interventions for poststroke cognitive impairment, identifying which psychological interventions are effective for improving poststroke cognitive function. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017069714.

The impact of frailty on healthcare utilisation in Ireland: evidence from the Irish longitudinal study on ageing.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of frailty on medical and social care utilisation among the Irish community-dwelling older population to inform strategies of integrated care for older people with complex needs. METHODS: Participants aged ≥65 years from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) representative of the Irish community-dwelling older population were analysed (n = 3507). The frailty index was used to examine patterns of utilisation across medical and social care services. Multivariate logistic and negative binomial regression models were employed to examine the impact of frailty on service utilisation outcomes after controlling for other factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty and pre-frailty was 24% (95% CI: 23, 26%) and 45% (95% CI: 43, 47%) respectively. Frailty was a significant predictor of utilisation of most social care and medical care services after controlling for the main correlates of frailty and observed individual effects. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty predicts utilisation of many different types of healthcare services rendering it a useful risk stratification tool for targeting strategies of integrated care. The pattern of care is predominantly medical as few of the frail older population use social care prompting questions about sub-groups of the frail older population with unmet care needs.

Unmet healthcare needs in Ireland: Analysis using the EU-SILC survey.

The analysis used the 2013 Survey of Income and Living Conditions to examine the extent and causes of unmet need for healthcare services in Ireland. The analysis found that almost four per cent of participants reported an unmet need for medical care. Overall, lower income groups, those with poorer health status and those without free primary care and/or private insurance were more likely to report an unmet healthcare need. The impact of income on the likelihood of reporting an unmet need was particularly strong for those without free primary care and/or private insurance, suggesting a role for the health system in eradicating income based inequalities in unmet need. Factors associated with the healthcare system - cost and waiting lists - accounted for the majority of unmet needs. Those with largely free public healthcare entitlement were more likely than all other eligibility categories to report that their unmet need was due to waiting lists (rather than cost). While not possible to explicitly examine in this analysis, it is probable that unmet need due to cost is picking up on the relatively high out-of-pocket payments for primary care for those who must pay for GP visits; while unmet need due to waiting is identifying the relatively long waiting times within the acute hospital sector for those within the public system.

The 2011 proposal for Universal Health Insurance in Ireland: Potential implications for healthcare expenditure.

The Irish healthcare system has long been criticised for a number of perceived weaknesses, including access to healthcare based on ability-to-pay rather than need. Consequently, in 2011, a newly elected government committed to the development of a universal, single-tier system based on need and financed through Universal Health Insurance (UHI). This article draws on the national and international evidence to identify the potential impact of the proposed model on healthcare expenditure in Ireland. Despite a pledge that health spending under UHI would be no greater than in the current predominantly tax-funded model, the available evidence is suggestive that the proposed model involving competing insurers would increase healthcare expenditure, in part due to an increase in administrative costs and profits. As a result the proposed model of UHI appears to be no longer on the political agenda. Although the Government has been criticised for abandoning its model of UHI, it has done so based on national and international evidence about the relatively high additional costs associated with this particular model.